In the context of the country's continuous improvement of the supply side structural capacity reform, the supply and demand pattern of the TP316L stainless steel pipe industry has been effectively optimized, especially since the "strip steel" has been banned in an all-round way, and the decline trend of the domestic stainless steel export volume is more obvious. In March 2018, domestic stainless steel exports continued to rise, but still kept low.

 

TP316L stainless steel tube market may have such a question: after all, in March, the domestic TP316L stainless steel tube market prices had a significant decline in the price of domestic stainless steel export quotations in the main export regions of Southeast Asia market prices already have a certain advantage, but in March domestic stainless steel export volume and No more increments are presented.

 

The repair growth trend of stainless steel exports will continue. In April, the export of stainless steel material will no longer decrease or even remain unchanged. There are two factors in it.

 

First, in the 1 quarter of 2018, the output of the domestic TP316L stainless steel tube fell significantly, the export demand was not strong, and the export prices had no advantages, and the export reduction was in line with the expectation.

 

Second, export volume remained relatively high in the 1 quarter of last year, but export price advantage is no longer this year, so the sharp decrease in export volume is in line with expectations.

 

At present, the TP316L stainless steel tube market is generally concerned about high storage pressure. If combined with export reflux data, the pressure and supply pressure of TP316L stainless steel pipe market is limited. If we consider the influence of the dislocation in the Spring Festival season, we can make a great deal of concern about the current stock pressure of TP316L stainless steel pipe market.

 

So how do we view the future TP316L stainless steel tube Market?

 

Stainless steel spot supermarket analysis shows that the short-term is not pessimistic, but the medium and long term is not optimistic. In fact, the contradiction between the TP316L stainless steel tube Market and the market is still focused on the relationship between supply and demand and macro uncertainty. On the macro level, the pressure of the slowdown in domestic economic growth and the uncertainty of Sino US trade war will naturally test the domestic TP316L stainless steel pipe industry. From the loss to the large profit, the future profit contraction should be a large probability event, so the heart of risk prevention must be long deposited.

 

In the short term, the high stock, high yield and high profit of TP316L stainless steel pipe still constitute a certain pressure on the late market, but the short-term risk has been effectively released after a big return on the price in March. As far as stock is concerned, although the current TP316L stainless steel pipe plant and the total stock of the society are obviously higher than the same period last year, it is not to be ignored that the production supply of medium frequency furnace in 2017 is basically clear in 2018, and the rising of the mainstream sample stock is also logical.

 

The next seasonal peak demand is still expected, the monitored TP316L stainless steel pipe volume has been testified, so there is no need to worry too much. On the contrary, the TP316L stainless steel tube production continued to rise in the same period last year, and this year's growth or weakness in the short term; I think the TP316L stainless steel tube inventory reduction in the future will be over the past. In the same period, inventory pressure was effectively relieved. After the superposition of April, the reflux pressure of the stainless steel export is relieved, so the market supply and demand in the short term are relatively good, the market price of TP316L stainless steel tube or the demand for a phased rebound.

 

Of course, because of the long-term macro and weak demand in the medium and long term, the market price of TP316L stainless steel tube is rising sharply, and even the new high is facing greater pressure. It is a good choice to enjoy the fundamentals in a short period of time without losing the prospect of risk.


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After a month long fall, since yesterday, the stainless steel seamless tube Market in Shandong and even the whole country has seen a prolonged rise in the market. The whole market is also revival and rising, which means that the speed of storage is expected to continue to be seamless to stainless steel. Market sentiment has played a positive role in stabilizing the market. The following are discussed in the following aspects.

First, stainless steel seamless pipe prices will appear turning points after the price is down rapidly.

The stainless steel seamless tube market has rebounded at the end of the month after a wave of decline. The price drop is the biggest downward trend this year. I compared the price falls of March this year and March last year to three times that of last year, but the stainless steel seamless tube at the end of March this year. The price is basically equal to the same period last year.

Through the price comparison, I found that the stainless steel seamless tube Market in 2017 started from the end of April. This year's decline compared with last year is larger than last year. This is related to the actual situation of this year. High storage has led to a deepening of the price decline of stainless steel seamless tube this year. But similarly, will this year's market start like the end of April? Or the downside has already released the risk of downhill in April.

Two, stainless steel seamless pipe, high inventory is the biggest drag.

The information from the latest phase of the national social inventory has increased considerably compared with the same period last year. In addition, steel factory inventory and re production are also an uncertain factor affecting the price rebound of this stainless steel seamless tube. From the latest inventory survey, steel plant inventory is still increasing compared with the same period last week.

Three, the release of stainless steel seamless pipe market demand is increasing.

From the telephone survey and field interview in the last month, most of the projects in the Shandong region have been started, but the demand for stainless steel seamless tubes in March is insufficient and the site procurement is very small. This is one of the main reasons that lead to the price of stainless steel seamless tube in the whole of March. The city network has learned that this year, because of the increasing pressure on environmental protection and funds, the construction site has started very late, and most of the construction sites are concentrated in April, so the boom is a basic support.

Four. Summary

On the whole, I think the rebound is still not enough. But in general, with the complete release of the downstream demand, the whole stainless steel seamless tube market will usher in a long wait for a rebound, so the merchants should be vigilant about the impact of inventory and do not miss the good time to rebound, and seize the opportunity.


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Time : 2020-09-25
The contradiction of TP316L stainless steel pipe market

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